Opinion: Fashionable divas predict recession

Clothes and makeup on a vanity. Art by Dasha Allyn.

As the number of U.S. states effectively in a recession increases, more comments online jokingly discuss recession indicators. Though the United States is not officially in a recession, fears are increasing towards the possibility of there being one soon, based on the flippant spending of the current administration and other concerns.

In terms of more tangible recession indicators, women’s fashion trends have proven to be one of the most reliable and are often used by economists. This is partially due to women being the main drivers of the American economy, no matter how prejudiced the U.S. continues to be towards them. From purchases of lipstick to the appearance of fake blonde hair, women have been the tried and true skeptical divas, displaying the country’s potential for economic downfall.

In 2025, the revenue of the lipstick industry in the U.S. is at $4.15 billion, having increased by approximately 3.8% from 2024, and is expected to grow annually by 2.91%. The “lipstick index” explains that increased purchases of “affordable luxuries” like lipstick are fairly trustworthy indicators of an incoming recession. 

Leonard Lauder, one of the heirs to Estée Lauder, coined the term shortly after the attacks on the Twin Towers in 2001. Lipstick sales dramatically rose after the accident, which coincidentally happened during a devastating economic crash. 

Mary Mannion, a writer for J.P. Morgan, explains that these purchases of lipstick “can have a positive psychological impact during stressful times.” The ability to spend on a small luxury item typically makes people feel better about their economic situation. It gives a false sense of stability and short-term happiness by being able to afford something unnecessary. 

Similarly, the “hemline index” can also predict economic crashes and potential recessions. As hemlines get longer, the economy is speculated to become worse. This trend loosely goes back to the 1920s, when hemlines were shorter during prosperous times and then promptly lowered during the Great Depression. Since then, hemlines have been decently reliable predictors of economic failure. 

Part of the reasoning behind this is that when women wear shorter skirts, it represents going out, partying and generally participating in activities that require money. During 2025, online searches for maxi skirts rose 393 percent, assisting the growing belief that a recession will occur soon. 

Vogue Arabia’s Hanadi Merchant-Habib does not agree, however. Merchant-Habib believes that in this modern day and age, hemlines should not be viewed as recession indicators, since runway models and everyday people continue to wear both mini and maxi skirts. They are a fashion statement, not a prophet. 

Generally, luxury purchases have fallen as of late due to economic uncertainty, even though fashion houses want to convince the public otherwise. Despite new releases, sales have continued to slow down as less affluent consumers prefer to keep their money saved for necessities instead of luxuries. However, “small” luxuries are still on the rise and will continue to be on the rise for the foreseeable future.

In practice, researchers at Erasmus University Rotterdam found that the index also works on a three-year delay, changing after the economy does. Nevertheless, searches for minimalist fashion and maxi skirts have risen dramatically, giving many much to worry about as we enter the new year and continue with the same political make-up in the federal government and no evident improvements to the current economic situation.

Recession blonde, also termed recession brunette, is another women’s fashion trend that has been used to exemplify increased economic uncertainty. After the stock market crash of 2008, in the following year, the term “recession hair” was coined. This refers to how bleach blondes grow out their roots and do not get them touched up in tough economic times due to the cost of such an appointment. In general, keeping up bleached blonde hair is costly and takes lots of dedicated time. This is time and money that cannot be afforded when the economy is down.

There is a fair amount of pushback to the idea that blondes growing out their roots is a recession indicator. Healthy hair has had a stronger push in recent years, with clients wanting to keep their hair healthy but stylish, opting to dye anything but the roots. Even so, it is reasonable to link the two together and see the clear line drawn between cost-effective styles and economic insecurity.

Though these indices and trends may not be hard-hitting proof of an incoming recession or market crash, regardless of whether a recession is on the horizon, if women are such a crucial component of the economy, we should be paying more attention.